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SUPER BOWL INSIGHT

SUPER BOWL INSIGHT

 

The Super Bowl creates a great deal of excitement and lots of drama. I can think of only one other sporting event that annually  creates this kind of magical, intense interest; The Kentucky Derby.  This is one NFL game that not only attracts football fans but for many, this is the only football game they'll watch all season. People who never bet will actually put a few bucks down on a team in this game. Gamblers who wager 'X' will usually play 2 or 3 times their normal wager just because it is the Super Bowl. Because it is the last football game to be played this season, it offers the last chance for losers to get their money back and winners to increase their wealth.  The media has a ball with it and the public loves it all.  It's one of America's greatest spectacles. 

Upon its conclusion when the final whistle blows, I can sight a number of my buddies who actually go into a small depression for several weeks simply because the football season is over.

All this said, it is still just one game. But what a game it is.

Let me share a few Super Bowl stats and observations I have made through the years. First, because it is the only game in town, bookmakers, in general, usually don't like the game. They like it when the player has a number of games to play, so the books have the advantage and the odds are on their side with a greater margin of options. Props (Situational bets that focus on individual player performances or game situations) are one more way bookmakers try to lure players into making additional wagers. Such as: Who is going to score first? What the initial flip of the coin will be (heads or tails) and many, many others.

One interesting observation about past Super Bowls is that if a team won the previous year and is the now defending their championship they have won these Super Bowls 7 out 8 times. The only time that failed was in February 1st, 2015 when Seattle made the worst play call in the history of sports and decided to pass on the 2 yard line against New England with seconds to go throwing that interception. Pats won 28-24 to break that streak. Speaking of that game, it also marked only the second time Alleghenies Analysis lost a Top Play on a Super Bowl pick. AA lost its first Top rated  play on New England in 2004 when Brady tossed an interception in the endzone during the fourth quarter to Carolina. Previously Alleghenies had run off nine outstanding Top rated winners between 1981 and 2003. All documented and monitored by The Sports Monitor Inc. of Oklahoma and Jack Stewart of Sports Watch.  Each of the nine winners covered the spread by at least 13.5 points. A few of the blowout winners were: 1984 LA Raiders 38-9 win over Washington, 1986 Chicago's 46-10 whopping of New England, 1990 San Fran's 55-10 mauling of Denver and 1993 Dallas' 52-17 thrashing of Buffalo.

 Even though Donn Wagner will occasionally pass if he finds the line to be too good, he has had an outstanding history of picking Super Bowls: His current mark is (54-26) ATS documented since 1980.

To this day, Wagner's most memorable Super Bowl and Super Bowl prediction was made on January 27th 1994 on 720 KDWN (in Las Vegas) involving Super Bowl XXVIII which was played on January 30th, 1994.  Wagner, on his weekly national radio show, titled "Swami's Secrets" predicted Dallas would defeat Buffalo by the score of 30-13.  He did not stop there, he also forecasted that Buffalo would be leading at halftime but would be shut out in the 2nd half! The Swami's prediction proved to be 95% correct. The only thing he missed was that he predicted Buffalo would be leading 13-3 at the half where they actually had a lead of 13-6.  Wagner still recalls the phone calls and letters he received from listeners and clients after that prediction came to fruition. It's interesting to note, Wagner had never before offered an exact score of the Super Bowl. He was quoted to say ," I think after that unique moment, I figured I'd quit while I was way ahead! "

Before I share with you my prediction for Super Bowl LII, I'd like to share a few stats that we believe you may find interesting.

New England's head coach, Bill Belichick, has never won a Super Bowl when his team has been ranked  #1 in both scoring offense and total offense.  This 2017-18 season, his squad is ranked #1 in both areas for only the 3rd time in his coaching career. Will the trend continue?  The two seasons the Pats were #1 in both were: 2007 Pats lost to New York Giants and in 2012 he lost in the AFC Championship game to Baltimore. Finally here is a dandy. New England with Brady at QB has "never" scored a point in the first quarter of the 7 Super Bowls it has played in. Believe it or not.

New England is (15-0) when facing a team in the playoffs that it did not face during the regular season. But it is only (12-9) facing a team it has faced previously the same season. This is not good news for the Philadelphia Eagles, who did not face New England this season or last.

New England's playoff record is an amazing (28-10) under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. There's no question these two both will be remembered as the winningest  NFL Head Coach and Quarterback of all-time.

THE SWAMI'S THOUGHTS: I believe the Vegas line, as I write this copy, is fairly spot-on. New England is a -4.5 favorite and the total is 48.5.

It is interesting to note that the 7 previous Super Bowls, Tom Brady led the Pats to a (5-2) mark and all 7 games ended in regulation with no greater than a 4-point margin. Last season, in their Atlanta comeback win, the contest went into overtime before New England won by 6. Pats 5 SB wins under Brady: (34-28) OT, (28-24), (24-21),(32-29) and (20-17). Pats 2 losses under Brady: (17-21) and (14-17).

I see a competitive game with the score somewhere around 24-20. I do predict a high scoring 4th quarter so for those of you who like prop plays, that might be a move you can make.  I'm currently (5-0) in the playoffs for 2017-18 and really would like to give my clients some direction but the line needs to be 50 or higher for me to play under. So I am sticking to my 24-20 score. Since I did not predict who will win, my history remains intact with just that one exact score and projected winner back in 1994.  Hahahahaa! Enjoy the game and be well.


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