Football Handicapping 101
I am going to show you how to become a winner this football season. This will put you in the 2% Club. What’s the 2% Club you ask? That’s the percentage of bettors that actually made money by season’s end. Why do you think more and more off shore sportsbooks keep opening at the beginning of football every year? It’s because 98% of all sports bettors end up losers in the end. When you are finished reading this article, you will certainly be a much tougher player for the sportsbooks to beat.
Now don’t go quit your job expecting to move to Vegas and become a professional sports gambler. It takes many years to become a seasoned pro. This article will certainly help you drastically improve your play and be well on your way to becoming a "sharp" and you will certainly do much better than you’ve done in the past.
There are three keys to being a successful sports gambler These are listed in order of importance.
1) Money Management
2) Shopping for line value
3) Handicapping
With all three, you Must Have DISCIPLINE
Countless very good handicappers have went broke because they weren't able to manage their money. As you see above, I have handicapping listed as least important. Those that are able to spot value and know how to manage their bankroll, can win without the slightest clue how to handicap a game.
I will use this space for the handicapping portion. Of course there's a lot more to handicapping than I will be able to list in this article. I will give you some key pointers to get you started in the right direction and instantly improve your chances of winning.
You must be able to set your own line for each game. You do this by having power ratings for each team. This will let you establish a true line for each game. Let’s say New England is playing Pittsburgh and New England is listed as a 5 point favorite. You must know if this is the correct number or just a number put up in an attempt to get even action on the game? The games you're looking to bet are the games where the point spread is NOT the actual difference between the two teams, and there are plenty of opportunities to find these games each week.
A tremendous amount of work goes into my own power ratings and I couldn't possibly teach you here in the space I have. There are some power ratings available for free, or for a few bucks, and all do a decent job. Just do a google search for football power ratings and you'll find plenty.
Once you have your ratings, you can assign a line to each game on the card for the upcoming week, and then compare it to the actual betting lines. You're looking for significant differences between the power rating and the betting line. Those are the games you want to focus in on.
After establishing the games to focus on for the week, the fun begins. Now must take a look at other factors that could influence the game. Weather, injuries, revenge, etc. For example, you may find a significant difference between the power rating and the line, but further research may tell you that the reason for the big gap is a key injury in the game.
Remember, revenge especially in college football plays a huge role. Maybe it's revenge for a blow out at the hands of their opponent the year before. Maybe one player said negative things about a player on the other team. The list goes on and on but any bulletin board material is worth looking in to. Coaches routinely use these motivational factors while preparing their teams for upcoming games, and these motivational factors work!
There may be a few trends you see each week worth a second look but believe me, trends are 90% useless. It's easy to go back over a large sampling of games and find trends that WOULD have won had you played them from the starting point. You may read a trend that says some NFL team is 15-0 against the spread after losing by more than 14 points the week before. Well that's just great. But who knew that when they were 1-0 after losing by 14? Furthermore, you could start playing that trend now and go 0-3. But guess what, you'll still see that trend hyped next year. It will say that the team is 15-3 after losing by more than 14 the week before. Hey, 15-3 still looks great doesn't it? Forget trends. 90% are garbage and the ones that are meaningful, everyone knows about them, INCLUDING the odds makers, so this is already reflected in the betting line.
Brian Hay, CEO of Prophet Plays, has decided to take his plays public after years of being only available to private clients. Customers can find all my releases in MLB, Pro and College Football, and Pro and College Basketball right here. Brian offers you over 20 years of professional sports gambling experience. I use the perfect blend of emotional, statistical, technical, and match up analysis to make every play I release to my customers. My customers will always get experience, professionalism, and effort. I believe in a long term approach to sports gambling. Sports betting is a marathon not a sprint. There are no get-rich quick schemes. Any game can and will lose in almost unimaginable ways. No matter how great a handicapper is, there will be losing days. If you believe in "Fixed Games", "Inside Information", and 80% to 90% winners for a season, you need to put a sports schedule under your pillow every night and let the Tooth Fairy fill in your winners, you already live in "LA LA LAND". You have to maintain self discipline, meaning you have to stick to your plan. I know that by sticking to tried and true handicapping techniques we will be well ahead by the end of each season. My plays are rated 5* SOLID GOLD PLAY and 10* DIAMOND PLAY. My 10* DIAMOND PLAYS are without question the strongest release you will ever be able to purchase. This is one of the most sought after plays in sports wagering! If you are looking for Catchy Phrases or Game of The This and That - you can easily find them. If you are looking for long term winning from a Real Professional Sports Gambler - You just found one. I live in Las Vegas and sports wagering is all I do everyday.
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